Market Monday Report for September, 2026

Market Monday Update

September 2026 | Stratford, Perth County, Woolwich & Wellesley

Monthly Snapshot & Nine-Month Cumulative Analysis

Nine months of signal

The fall market arrived in two of our three markets. Stratford sales rose 21.4% from August and Perth County rose 22.2%, which is the seasonal lift September usually brings. Woolwich and Wellesley saw no such lift: volume eased a further 9.5% from August, and prices stepped down 9.0% alongside it.

September also corrected two readings from last month's report, and both corrections are worth stating plainly. Stratford's August looked like a genuine softening, with the average price down 13.7% year-over-year. In September that gap closed to 0.3%. August was a composition month after all, and the caution I attached to it was the right instinct. Woolwich and Wellesley ran the other direction: August suggested its price correction might be finding a floor, and September reopened the gap.

This is why the cumulative view does the work. Nine months in, Stratford has sold almost exactly what it sold by this point last year, at pricing 3.3% softer. Perth County is ahead on volume with pricing dead flat. Woolwich and Wellesley carries a genuine adjustment of roughly 9% on both price and volume. Those three sentences have held steady for months while the monthly numbers have swung in both directions

Stratford: August was the anomaly

34 sales in September, up from 28 in August and down from 37 last September. The year-over-year gap narrowed to 8.1% from August's 26.3%. The seasonal lift came as expected, and the market did not fall away.

More telling is the price. The average came in at $574,797 against $576,308 last September, a difference of 0.3%. After a month in which the average read 13.7% below last year, that is close to a full reversal. The median at $555,000 against $570,000 is down 2.6%, and the two measures now sit much closer together: the average is only 3.6% above the median, against a far wider spread in August. The top and the middle of this market are moving together again.

The list-to-sell ratio held at 98% for a third consecutive month. That number has not moved all quarter, through a sharp drop in August and a recovery in September. It is the most reliable single figure in this report.

Detached: the first positive comparison since spring

22 detached homes sold at an average of $610,645, against 23 at $603,517 last September. Volume essentially level and pricing up 1.2%, the first time this year the detached average has come in ahead of the same month last year.

The detached median complicates it slightly, at $575,000 against $606,000, down 5.1%. A rising average alongside a falling median points to a handful of larger sales lifting the top while the middle of the segment stays soft. One month of that is not a recovery, but after August it is a welcome direction.

Semi-detached

7 semi-detached sales at an average of $479,986, against 7 at $527,143 a year ago. Identical volume, pricing down 8.9%, and the median down 8.6% alongside it. When volume holds steady and both price measures fall together, the signal is clean. This is the one Stratford segment showing a consistent price decline rather than a composition effect.

Semi-detached volume also jumped from 4 sales in August to 7 in September. Buyers are finding this segment, and they are paying less for it than last year's buyers did.

Townhomes and condos

Two townhomes sold at $581,000, against 3 at $550,000 last September, so pricing up 5.6% on a very thin base. Three condos sold at $529,000, against 4 at $525,625, essentially unchanged. Both segments returned to life after August, when townhomes recorded no sales at all.

Inventory is building

159 active listings at the end of September, up from 136 in August and 119 in July. That is a 33.6% increase in available homes across the quarter, and at September's pace it represents roughly 4.7 months of inventory.

This is the most consequential number in the Stratford section. Prices have steadied and sales have recovered, but the pool of homes competing for each buyer keeps growing. If listings continue to climb through October while sales hold near 34 a month, pricing pressure follows regardless of what the September averages say.

Stratford: August vs. September 2026

Stratford: September 2026 vs. September 2025

Stratford: January to September

Volume level with last year (338 vs. 340), with average pricing down 3.3%. June and July 2025 totals are derived from property-type detail.

Two fewer sales than last year across nine months, at pricing 3.3% softer. That is the honest summary of Stratford in 2026, and it has barely moved since the midpoint of the year. The monthly figures have been volatile; the year has not.

Perth County: The strongest month of the year

44 sales in September, up from 36 in August and up from 40 last September. Volume ahead 22.2% on the month and 10.0% on the year, which makes this the only one of our three markets to post a year-over-year gain in September.

The average price rose to $734,353, up 9.0% from August and up 3.0% from last September. The median moved the other way, $635,094 against $665,000, down 4.5%. That divergence deserves attention: the average now sits 15.6% above the median, the widest spread of the three markets, which tells us the upper end of this county is carrying the average while the typical transaction sits lower than it did a year ago.

The list-to-sell ratio improved to 98% from 96% last September. Perth County has now held at 98% for four consecutive months while that figure has moved around in the neighbouring markets. Buyers and sellers here are meeting close to asking with unusual consistency.

Detached

37 detached sales at an average of $778,564, against 33 at $755,923 last September. Volume up 12.1% and pricing up 3.0%. This was the highest detached volume Perth County has recorded in any month this year.

Detached homes made up 84% of September transactions here, matched only by Woolwich and Wellesley at the same share. When one segment carries five of every six sales, the county's headline numbers are effectively a detached story, and that story is a good one this month. The detached median of $670,000 against $700,000 is down 4.3%, so the gain is weighted toward the upper end rather than spread evenly.

The smaller segments

4 semi-detached sales at $552,922, against 3 at $606,333 a year ago, down 8.8%. That decline closely matches the 8.9% fall in Stratford semi-detached pricing, and two markets moving the same way in the same segment is worth more than either on its own.

Two townhomes sold at $499,000 against a single sale at $760,000 last September. One condo sold at $295,000 against 3 averaging $336,667. At one and two transactions, these figures describe individual houses rather than segments.

Perth County: August vs. September 2026

These figures exclude Stratford, which is reported separately above.

Perth County: September 2026 vs. September 2025

Perth County: January to September

Volume up 2.9% year-over-year. Cumulative average pricing is calculated from property-type detail for the January to May period, as the summary figure on file is inconsistent with the monthly averages recorded since. August uses 36 sales at $673,550, the component-reconciled figure published last month.

Flat. Not approximately flat: $675,481 this year against $675,287 last year, a difference of $194 on an average approaching seven hundred thousand dollars. Volume is up 2.9% alongside it. Across nine months Perth County has been the most stable market we track, and it has achieved that while absorbing a $3.2 million farm sale and a $165,000 sale in a single August.

Woolwich and Wellesley: The correction resumes

19 sales in September, down from 21 in August and from 24 last September. A 20.8% year-over-year decline. The seasonal lift that arrived in the other two markets did not reach these townships.

Volume is the gentler half of this month's story. The average price came in at $873,526 against $949,021 last September, down 8.0%, and down 9.0% from August. The median fell to $825,000 from $875,000, a decline of 5.7%. Both measures moved down together, which makes this a price month rather than a composition month.

The list-to-sell ratio eased to 97.3% from 98.9% a year ago. It remains the healthiest-looking figure in the section, though it is now the lowest of the three markets we track, where a year ago it was the highest.

Last month's reading, revisited

In the August report I noted that detached values here had come in essentially level with the previous August and that the median had risen 9.3%, and I wrote that a second month in the same direction would make it a trend worth naming. September did not deliver that second month. It delivered the opposite.

Detached homes sold at an average of $913,250 against $1,031,947 last September, a gap of 11.5%, and the detached median fell to $850,000 from $925,000, down 8.1%. The detached gap is now wider than at any point since July. August looks like a single strong month inside a continuing adjustment rather than the beginning of a recovery.

I would rather correct that reading now than carry it forward. The honest position is that this market is still working through its correction, and nine months of data supports that more firmly than any single month contradicts it.

Townhomes: the growth segment has stalled

One townhome sold in September at $630,000, against 3 averaging $683,167 last September. Through the first half of the year townhomes were the one genuinely encouraging segment in these townships, with volume running ahead of 2025 at steady pricing.

Two townhome sales in August and one in September is not that market any more. A single transaction describes one house rather than a segment, so I would not read a price trend into the 7.8% gap. The volume is the signal, and the volume has gone quiet.

Woolwich and Wellesley: August vs. September 2026

Woolwich and Wellesley: September 2026 vs. September 2025

Woolwich and Wellesley: January to September

Volume down 8.8% year-over-year, with average pricing down 9.4%.

Nine months in, this market carries the largest adjustment of the three on both measures. The figure has been remarkably consistent all year: pricing has sat between 9% and 11% below the previous year in every cumulative reading since the spring. That consistency is what makes it a correction rather than a wobble.

The third quarter in full

With September closed, the July-to-September quarter gives a cleaner read than any single month, and it is the first quarter of 2026 we can compare whole against 2025.

Third quarter 2026 vs. third quarter 2025

Volume figures are transaction counts. Average price change compares the weighted quarterly average in each market.

Stratford sold 100 homes in the quarter against 118, and Woolwich and Wellesley 69 against 94. Perth County was the only market to grow. Set beside the nine-month cumulative figures, this says the summer and early autumn were the weakest stretch of 2026 in two of three markets, and that the year as a whole is being held up by a stronger first half.

That matters for what comes next. If the fourth quarter runs at third-quarter rates rather than at the pace of the spring, the full-year figures will finish softer than the nine-month numbers currently suggest.

What nine months tells us

September brought the seasonal recovery to Stratford and Perth County and skipped Woolwich and Wellesley entirely. Underneath the month, four things are worth carrying forward.

Two of three markets are level with last year on volume

Stratford has sold 338 homes against 340, a difference of two transactions across nine months. Perth County is up 2.9% at 356 against 346. Woolwich and Wellesley is down 8.8%. The first two have matched last year's pace almost exactly, which is not the impression any individual month this summer would have given.

Pricing has eased modestly, and unevenly

Perth County is flat to within $194 on its nine-month average. Stratford is down 3.3%. Woolwich and Wellesley is down 9.4%. The spread between the strongest and weakest of the three has been roughly nine percentage points all year, and it has not narrowed.

Semi-detached is softening across markets

Stratford semi-detached pricing fell 8.9% year-over-year in September and Perth County's fell 8.8%. Both markets held their semi-detached volume steady while prices dropped, and both saw their medians fall by similar amounts. Two independent markets producing the same figure in the same segment is the clearest single-segment signal in this month's data.

Inventory is the thing to watch, not price

Stratford active listings have risen from 119 in July to 159 in September, a 33.6% increase, while monthly sales have moved from 38 to 34. Supply is growing faster than demand is absorbing it. September's prices held up well, but a market with 4.7 months of inventory and a rising listing count has less pricing support than one with three.

List-to-sell ratios remain the steadiest signal

Stratford held 98% for a third consecutive month. Perth County has held 98% for four, and improved on last September's 96%. Woolwich and Wellesley eased to 97.3%, the lowest of the three and down from 98.9% a year ago. Through a quarter of swinging volumes, homes priced to current conditions have consistently sold within three points of asking.

For sellers

September was a better month than August almost everywhere, and if you are in Stratford or Perth County the data supports going to market this autumn. Stratford prices came in level with last September and Perth County's were up 3.0%. The buyers are there.

The caution for Stratford sellers is competition rather than price. There are 159 homes on the market, up a third since July, and each new listing makes accurate pricing more important than it was in the spring. The 98% list-to-sell ratio is being earned by sellers who priced to today, not awarded to everyone.

In Woolwich and Wellesley the correction is continuing. August offered a hopeful month and September took it back, with the detached gap widening to 11.5%. If you are listing here this autumn, price to the nine-month trend rather than to August's numbers or to last year's comparables. Nineteen sales in a month means the buyers who are active have a great deal of choice and very little urgency.

For buyers

Stratford offers the clearest opportunity of the three markets right now, for a reason that has nothing to do with price. 159 active listings against 34 monthly sales is the most selection buyers have had all year, and selection is worth as much as a discount. Pricing has stabilized rather than fallen, so the advantage here is choice and negotiating room rather than a lower number.

Woolwich and Wellesley remains roughly 9% below last year on price, and September confirmed the adjustment has not finished. Detached pricing came in 11.5% below last September, the widest gap since July. Buyers who have been waiting there have been rewarded for it so far, and nothing in this month's data argues for hurrying.

Perth County is the market where waiting has cost buyers money. Pricing is flat across nine months and volume is up, so there is no correction to wait out. If this county suits your plans, the case for acting is as strong now as it has been.

Semi-detached homes in both Stratford and Perth County are roughly 9% cheaper than they were a year ago, with volume steady. For buyers whose plans suit that kind of home, this is the clearest value in the region.

Looking ahead

October and November will tell us whether the third quarter was a seasonal trough or the shape of the market now. Three things to watch.

First, Stratford inventory. If listings keep climbing past 159 while sales hold near 34, pricing pressure will follow by winter regardless of how well September held.

Second, whether Woolwich and Wellesley finds a floor. The detached gap widened again in September after narrowing in August, and the townhome segment that carried this market through the spring is down to one sale a month. A steadier October on detached pricing would be reassuring; another step down would not.

Third, whether Perth County can hold its lead. It has been flat on price and ahead on volume for nine months, through a summer that softened both neighbouring markets. If that holds through the autumn it stops being a run of good months and becomes the defining fact about this county's market.

Questions about what this means for your home or your next move? I am here to talk it through.

Data sources

Stratford and Perth County statistics were compiled from data published by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Woolwich and Wellesley statistics were compiled from data published by the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®. Quarterly and cumulative figures are calculated from monthly sales and are weighted by transaction count.

Disclaimer: Market information and statistics referenced herein have been compiled from data published by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® and other sources deemed reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the information is provided for general informational purposes only and is not guaranteed. Figures may be subject to revisions, reporting delays, or data-entry errors, and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice. This communication is not intended to cause or induce a breach of an existing agency agreement. We do not solicit properties that are currently listed for sale or already under contract with another brokerage.