Market Monday-October 2026

Ten months of signal

October split our three markets three ways. Stratford had its strongest month since June, with sales up 10.8% on last October. Perth County turned down for the first time this year, with volume off 13.9% and pricing off 10.1%. Woolwich and Wellesley rebounded 63.2% from a very quiet September and brought its detached pricing back to roughly level with last year.

One caution before the detail. In October the detached segment carried 66% of Stratford transactions, 87% of Perth County's and 84% of Woolwich and Wellesley's. Outside detached, and outside the Stratford condo market, the monthly counts run to one or two sales. A 32% price change on two transactions describes two houses, so I report those figures without drawing conclusions from them. Where the numbers are thin, I have said so rather than dressed them up.

Ten months in, the cumulative picture has barely moved all year. Stratford has sold two more homes than it had by this point in 2025, at pricing 3.0% softer. Perth County is 1.3% ahead on volume with pricing within a point. Woolwich and Wellesley carries an adjustment of close to 9% on both measures. Those three readings have held since the summer while individual months have swung by 60% in both directions.

Stratford: A strong month with a complicated average

41 sales in October, up from 34 in September and up from 37 last October. That is the busiest month since June and a 10.8% gain on the year. The fall market arrived here and it stayed.

The average price came in at $641,625 against $642,881 last October, a difference of 0.2%, and the median at $605,000 against $600,000, up 0.8%. Both measures essentially flat. That reads like a quiet month, and it was not. Underneath those two numbers two large movements cancelled each other out, and the detail matters more than the headline.

Detached strengthened considerably

27 detached homes sold at an average of $720,030, against 28 at $637,764 last October. Pricing up 12.9% on almost identical volume, with the detached median up 10.2% to $640,000 from $581,000.

Average and median rising together by similar amounts is the cleanest signal in this month's data. This is not a few large sales lifting a mean; the whole segment moved. Set against September, when the detached average sat at $610,645, October added nearly $110,000 to the typical detached sale. After a summer in which this segment softened steadily, that is a genuine turn.

 A condo surge pulled the overall average back down

10 condos sold in October, against 6 last October and 3 in September. That is the highest condo volume Stratford has recorded in any month this year, and it made up 24% of all October transactions against 16% a year ago.

They sold at an average of $473,580, down 23.7% from last October's $620,702, with the median down 26.6%. A quarter of the month's transactions arriving at a price roughly $250,000 below the detached average is enough to hold the overall figure flat on its own.

So, the flat headline is arithmetic rather than a market reading. Detached values rose 12.9%; a larger share of lower-priced condo sales offset it. Both facts are real, and either one alone would be misleading.

The thin segments

Two semi-detached sales at $530,000, against 2 at $782,500 last October. Two townhomes at $535,000, against 1 at $640,000. The percentage changes on these are large and mean very little. In September semi-detached pricing looked like a clear cross-market signal, with Stratford and Perth County both down close to 9% on steady volume. October gives us three semi-detached sales between the two markets, which is not enough to confirm or contradict it.

Inventory keeps building

187 active listings at the end of October, up from 159 in September, 136 in August and 119 in July. Listings have risen 57.1% across four months while monthly sales have moved from 38 to 41.

At October's pace that is roughly 4.6 months of inventory. Sales are healthy and prices held, so the pressure has not shown up yet. But a market adding listings faster than it adds buyers has less pricing support each month, and this is the fourth consecutive month of that pattern. It remains the single most important number in the Stratford section.

Stratford: September vs. October 2026

Stratford: October 2026 vs. October 2025

The list-to-sell ratio is not shown for October. The figure on file reads 0.07, which is inconsistent with every other month this year and appears to be a data-entry error. It will be restored once confirmed.

Stratford: January to October

Volume level with last year (379 vs. 377), with average pricing down 3.0%. June and July 2025 totals are derived from property-type detail.

Two more sales than last year across ten months, at pricing 3.0% softer. Stratford has been the most predictable of the three markets on a cumulative basis and the most volatile month to month. The year figure has moved less than a percentage point since the summer.

Perth County: The first real downturn of the year

31 sales in October, down from 44 in September and down from 36 last October. Volume off 29.5% on the month and 13.9% on the year, and the lowest monthly total this county has recorded in the data we track.

The average price fell to $627,239 from $734,353 in September, down 14.6%, and sits 10.1% below last October's $697,386. The median fell to $560,000 from $635,094, down 11.8% on the month. After nine months in which Perth County pricing never moved more than a few points from the previous year, this is a genuine change of direction.

The list-to-sell ratio eased to 97% from the 98% it had held for four consecutive months. A single point is not alarming on its own, but it moved in the same direction as everything else this month.

 Detached: both measures down together

27 detached sales at an average of $646,833, against 32 at $715,809 last October. Volume down 15.6%, the average down 9.6%, and the median down 13.5% to $560,000 from $647,500.

When volume, average and median all fall together by comparable amounts, there is no composition story to fall back on. This is the segment that carries 87% of transactions in this county, and in October it softened on every measure at once. One month does not make a trend, and Perth County has earned the benefit of the doubt with nine steady months. But this is the first month all year where that steadiness broke.

Worth noting alongside it: the average still sits 12.0% above the median, the widest spread of the three markets. The upper end of this county continues to pull the average up even in a weak month, which means the typical transaction is softer than the average suggests.

The thin segments

One semi-detached sale at $595,000, two townhomes at $505,000 and a single condo at $374,900. Four transactions in total outside detached. These figures are recorded for completeness and should not be read as segment pricing.

Perth County: September vs. October 2026

These figures exclude Stratford, which is reported separately above.

Perth County: October 2026 vs. October 2025

The October 2025 median price is not shown. The cell on file holds a two-digit value where a dollar figure belongs, and the list-to-sell entry beneath it is empty, so the ratio appears to have been entered in the median row.

Perth County: January to October

Volume up 1.3% year-over-year, with average pricing down 0.8%. Cumulative pricing is calculated from property-type detail for the January to May period, as the summary figure on file is inconsistent with the monthly averages recorded since. August uses 36 sales at $673,550, the component-reconciled figure published in that month's report.

Even after a weak October, the ten-month figures remain the steadiest of the three markets: volume ahead 1.3% and pricing within a point of last year. That is the context for October rather than an excuse for it. A single month at minus ten on price does not undo ten months at minus one, but it does change what we watch for in November.

Woolwich and Wellesley: The rebound September lacked

31 sales in October, up from 19 in September and down from 34 last October. A 63.2% jump on the month, which makes this the strongest month in these two townships since June, and a modest 8.8% decline on the year.

The average price came in at $862,335 against $904,174 last October, down 4.6%. The median was $840,000 against $842,500, a difference of 0.3%. A median that’s flat on 31 transactions rather than a handful, is the most reassuring figure this market has produced in months.

The list-to-sell ratio came in at 99.6% against 97.5% last October, an improvement of more than two points and the strongest ratio of the three markets this month. Homes here are selling very close to asking.

 Detached returned to level

26 detached sales at an average of $903,746, against 32 at $920,184 last October. Pricing down 1.8% and the detached median down 0.9% to $872,500 from $880,000. Both measures within two points of last year.

In September the detached gap here was 11.5%. In October it is 1.8%. That is the second time this market has swung from a double-digit gap to roughly level in the space of a month, and the first time, in August, I read it as possible stabilization and had to withdraw that in September.

So, I will put it more carefully this time. October is a better month than September on every measure, on considerably more volume, and the ten-month figure has not changed. What this market has demonstrated through the autumn is volatility rather than direction. The honest reading is that two good months out of four do not yet outweigh an adjustment that has held near 9% all year.

The thin segments

Two semi-detached sales at $642,500, two townhomes at $772,500 and a single condo at $405,000. The townhome figure is 25.4% above last October's single sale, which tells you about two houses rather than a segment. Townhome volume has run at one or two a month since August, well below the four and five a month this market saw in the spring.

Woolwich and Wellesley: September vs. October 2026

September figures are the Cornerstone-revised totals published in last month's report. The October tracker carries the earlier, lower figures for that month; the revised data is the more complete record.

 Woolwich and Wellesley: October 2026 vs. October 2025

Woolwich and Wellesley: January to October

Volume down 8.8% year-over-year, with average pricing down 8.9%. September uses the Cornerstone-revised figures.

Down 8.8% on volume and 8.9% on price across ten months. This market has carried an adjustment of between 8% and 11% in every cumulative reading since the spring, and October has not changed it. The consistency of that figure, through months as different as September and October, is what makes it the number to plan around.

What ten months tells us

Three markets, three different Octobers, and one cumulative picture that has refused to move. Five things worth carrying into November.

Volume is level in two markets and down in the third

Stratford has sold 379 homes against 377, and Perth County 387 against 382. Both are within two percentage points of last year's pace after ten months. Woolwich and Wellesley are down 8.8%. That division has held since the spring.

Perth County turned down for the first time

October was the first month this year in which Perth County moved meaningfully against last year, and it moved on every measure: volume down 13.9%, average down 10.1%, detached median down 13.5%, list-to-sell down a point. This is the market that has been flat all year, so one weak month carries more information here than it would elsewhere. November will tell us whether it was a quiet month or a change.

 Stratford's flat average conceals a strengthening detached market

The overall average moved 0.2% while detached pricing rose 12.9% and a surge of condo sales to 24% of the month pulled in the opposite direction. Anyone reading only the headline would conclude nothing happened in Stratford in October. A good deal happened.

Detached is the only segment with enough volume to read

Detached carried 66%, 87% and 84% of October transactions in the three markets. Outside it, Stratford's 10 condo sales are the only segment anywhere with double-digit volume. Semi-detached produced five sales across all three markets combined. The cross-market semi-detached signal that looked clear in September cannot be tested on numbers that small, and I would not try.

Stratford inventory remains the thing to watch

187 active listings, up 57.1% since July, against monthly sales that have moved from 38 to 41 across the same stretch. Prices held in October and sales were strong, so the pressure has not arrived. Four consecutive months of listings growing faster than sales is a pattern that usually finds its way into pricing by winter.

For sellers

October was a good month to be selling in Stratford, particularly a detached home. Detached pricing rose 12.9% against last October and the median rose 10.2%, and 41 sales is the busiest month since June. If you have been waiting for a reason to list, the data gives you one.

The caution is the 187 homes you would be competing with, up from 119 in July. Buyers have more choice each month, which makes accurate pricing worth more than it was in the spring and makes presentation worth more than either.

In Perth County, October asks for care. Pricing came in 10.1% below last October with the detached median down 13.5%, after nine months of stability. One month is not a trend, but it is a reason to price to this autumn's comparables rather than to the summer's, and to expect a slower conversation than Perth County sellers have had all year.

In Woolwich and Wellesley the news is genuinely better. 31 sales, a median within $2,500 of last October, and a 99.6% list-to-sell ratio, the strongest of the three markets. Sellers here who have priced to the market have been meeting buyers very close to asking. The ten-month adjustment of roughly 9% is still the right basis for setting expectations, but October was a good month to be in it.

For buyers

Stratford offers the most choice and the least urgency: 187 listings against 41 monthly sales. The qualification is that detached pricing moved up sharply in October, so the advantage here is selection and negotiating room rather than a falling number. Buyers waiting for detached prices to come back to the summer's levels may be waiting for something that has already passed.

Stratford condos are the clear exception. Ten sold in October at an average 23.7% below last October, with the median down 26.6%. That is the sharpest value anywhere in the region this month, and the volume is high enough to trust the figure.

Perth County has moved in buyers' favour for the first time this year. Detached pricing is 9.6% below last October and the median 13.5% below. If this county suits your plans, October produced the first genuine opening of 2026.

In Woolwich and Wellesley, prices stopped falling in October and homes sold within half a point of asking. Buyers who have been waiting out the correction there should know the terms have tightened, at least for this month.

Looking ahead

November and December are usually the quietest months of the year, and the figures will thin out accordingly. Three things to follow.

First, whether Perth County's October was a single soft month or the beginning of something. It is the only one of the three markets whose direction genuinely changed this month, and it had been the steadiest.

Second, Stratford inventory. 187 listings and rising, four months into a pattern of supply outpacing demand. If that continues through the winter while sales ease seasonally, the spring market will open with more competition than this one did.

Third, whether Woolwich and Wellesley can put two good months together. It has swung from a double-digit price gap to roughly level twice this year and reverted both times. A steady November on detached pricing would mean more here than another strong month would in either of the other two markets.

Questions about what this means for your home or your next move? I am here to talk it through.

Data sources

Stratford and Perth County statistics were compiled from data published by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Woolwich and Wellesley statistics were compiled from data published by the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®. Cumulative figures are calculated from monthly sales and are weighted by transaction count.

Disclaimer: Market information and statistics referenced herein have been compiled from data published by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® and other sources deemed reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the information is provided for general informational purposes only and is not guaranteed. Figures may be subject to revisions, reporting delays, or data-entry errors, and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice. This communication is not intended to cause or induce a breach of an existing agency agreement. We do not solicit properties that are currently listed for sale or already under contract with another brokerage.